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bertus.ehmke@gmail.com [email protected] Analyzing South Africa's Controversial 4G Wholesale Plan
Re: From a technical point of view, a single network makes sense

Hi Dave. Interesting post and a couple of observations:

1) On the issue of spectrum - The maximum channel bandwidth in LTE is 20MHz. Whether you stack 5 x 20 Mhz channels adjacent, each still loses about 10% due to guarding, regardless of whether they belong to one operator. There is no way LTE allows for a contiguous 100MHz block. Only in 5G can contiguous blocks of this size be realized. The spectral efficiency between 5, 10, 15 and 20MHz bands differ very little. Only in 3Mhz and lower do the overheads really become a factor. 

2) Massive MIMO is a very new, mostly 5G tehcnology. If you look at the technology distribution in African networks you find that more than 70% of subscribers still use basic feature phones. The ones that use LTE smartphones are usually entry level, Chinese whitelabelled models. The percentage of devices that support the very latest in radio and antenna technology wil most proabably not even number 1 % - it is simply a question of affordability. This means that building networks using the very latest wizardry to mitigate a spectrum shoprtage will do very little to relieve congestion. The only other option is to densify the network with more sites which eventually gets transfered to the subscriber.

I sincerely doubt that vendors can tell you that Massive MIMO is rolled out in the thousands. Even 8x8 MIMO used by Huawei in offerings such as WTTx has only been around for about 18 months. And Massive MIMO defintely does not increase throughput 3 x 10 fold. That is once again vendors slideware :-)

Many South African towers are shared towers meaning they have 2 or even 3 operators on them. It is not simply a question of adding more antenna elements. Space is a huge factor on the towers. Already most oeprators have multiband atennas spanning 900/1800/2100.  Also MIMO only really works in urban environments where one can benefit from multipath. The real problem faced by SA operators is that no sub 1GHz spectrum is available for LTE. This means it is very costly to deliver in-building coverage and simply impossible to roll out LTE to rural markets using refarmed 1800MHz.

A profitable mobile network sweats its assets over multiple revenue streams such as voice,  data, Mobile Money, Digital Entertainement etc. There is simply no way that a greenfield network that has no legacy revenue will be able to fund the rollout of a new nationwide network which will eventually pay for itself whilst at the same time delivering data at a wholesale cost which is lower than than of the current operators. If you need convincing look to Rwanda where the wholesale cost of data on the monopoly LTE network is 30% more expensive than the other operators' RETAIL 3G data prices. After 2 years they have managed to connect less than 10,000 subcribers. There is simply no way operators can compete purely on a service level in the wireless space. Your pricing as well as customer satisfaction is absolutely related to the technical strategy with whcih you run your network.

Guy Zibi Guy Zibi Analyzing South Africa's Controversial 4G Wholesale Plan
Re: From a technical point of view, a single network makes sense

Dave-


These are all excellent points, thanks indeed. I'll yield to the point that existing operators can continue to optimize and refarm their existing spectrum assets for 4G. They've certainly done so to this point; but in a market where 85% of customers do not use 4G (but much of the traffic comes from the data side), it's a balancing exercise that's becoming increasingly difficult to pull off.

The other point is that they do need additional spectrum – if they are to make stronger moves towards cutting down prices, which is pretty much the crux of the matter.

Rwanda has certainly done well in terms of 4G coverage, which is higher than in most African markets. South African 4G coverage is at ~80% of the population, so not too far behind. Hopefully they can all turn their focus to increasing affordability.

daveburstein daveburstein Analyzing South Africa's Controversial 4G Wholesale Plan
From a technical point of view, a single network makes sense

Guy, Ray 

Thanks for all the strong reporting on Africa.

From 12,000 miles away, I'd be a fool to interpret the politics here. But I do know the technology and would like to make two points. Since Stanford Professor Paulraj told me in 2014 that Massive MIMO would be the right way to deliver capacity where there are few landlines, I've been looking at the issues. 

Most African wireless plans have caps of 2-10 gigabytes, nothing like the video Internet in the U.S. or Europe.  Fortunately, wireless technology is improving at a phenomenal rate; Verizon estimates costs are coming down 40% per year. The result is that wireless offerings can and should be much better.

Here in the U.S., the average landline Internet user draws almost 200 gigabytes/month. Wireless is mostly going "unlimited" with a soft cap, so offers 30-100 gigabytes. In France, $24 buys 100 gigabytes of 4G LTE. That's the kind of offering Africans deserve. 

So how do you raise capacity in a given amount of spectrum? Two key technologies are large blocks of contiguous spectrum and MIMO up to 64 antennas. Both are practical today.

1) An LTE block of say 60-100 MHz of contiguous spectrum delivers 30-75% more capacity than the same spectrum broken into 20 MHz blocks. Of course, it reduces the need for guard bands.

Even more important is the statistical likelihood that if one of the 20 MHz blocks approaches congestion, there will likely be capacity at the other carriers. But there is no common method to share the spectrum. Unless each company has precisely the same traffic demand at the same time, there's a major increase in what the network can deliver.  (Alcatel did pioneering work here.)

Which doesn't mean it's always right; sometimes splitting the spectrum can be important for competition. But it does offer much greater capacity.

2) Across the world, networks are going to 4, 8, and 64 antennas. (MIMO and Massive MIMO.) More antennas aren't free, but the cost is generally far less than densification. I believe most of South African towers are still single or dual antenna. From True in Thailand to Verizon in the U.S. to Telus in Canada, nearly every telco is going to 4x4 MIMO or higher. Going from 2 to antennas doesn't quite double capacity, but in most terrains the improvement is very large.

Japan & China have thousands of 64 antenna Massive MIMO cells, which are rapidly being adopted across India and the United States. (Vodafone is an early European advocate.) Huawei tells me Massive MIMO is now reliable and inexpensive enough to deploy in Africa. It typically increases capacity 3-10X.

----------------

Unless MTN & Voda are already 4x4, with Massive MIMO in peak areas, I would disagree "They need 4G spectrum -- and urgently." More spectrum would bring their costs down, of course. But where spectrum is short, it shouldn't be wasted. Before demanding more, operators should upgrade to efficient technology where the costs are reasonable. (4x4 and even 8x8 at 1800 is very affordable.)

-----------------

None of which asserts that the shared wholesale network will work for political reasons, although British Telecom is not doing that badly. In a country like South Africa, the best technical solution may not be right for other reasons.

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I haven't been to Kenya or Russia, but I wouldn't say their experience should rule out WOANs. In both cases, the plans looked good from the technical point of view, were supported by the Minister, and interested outside experts. They didn't happen because the incumbents raised political barriers. 

I don't know about pricing in Rwanda, but the news just came across they have reached 95% LTE coverage, better than Deutsche Telekom. 

Mexico is far behind schedule and has scaled back coverage plans, which is discouraging. Francois Rancy remains optimistic.

------------

Again - much of this is political and I don't know the politics. Delighted to exchange ideas.

Dave Burstein

 

 

 



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