Connecting Africa is part of the Informa Tech Division of Informa PLC

This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 3099067.

4G/5G

Nigeria will have 246M mobile subs by 2025 – Omdia

Article Image
Mobile is on the rise in Africa's most populous country, with market research company, Omdia, forecasting that mobile subscriptions in Nigeria will hit 246 million in 2025, rising from 180 million in 2019, and going far above the country's population of around 200 million.

Nigeria is Africa's largest telecoms and media market. In the first quarter of 2020, Nigerian mobile subscriptions represented 16.57% of the continent's 1.1 billion mobile users, followed by South Africa with 9.26% and Egypt with 8.65%. This is according to data extracted from Omdia's new Nigeria: Mobile, Broadband, TV, and OTT Video Report.

(All graphics courtesy of Omdia Forecaster.)
(All graphics courtesy of Omdia Forecaster.)

Nigeria's mobile revenue split is still vastly dominated by voice which made up 72% of overall service revenue of $6.58 billion in 2019. However, mobile data revenue is slowly increasing in the country, growing from 25% of service revenue in 2018 to 28% in 2019.

"Although the growth is significant, the ratio in Nigeria remains lower than the average rate of 40% across Africa in 2019. Data revenue is forecast to represent 50% of revenue in 2024," said the report's author, Thecla Mbongue, who is a senior research analyst for Middle East and Africa (MEA) at Omdia.

LTE is the fastest-growing technology in both the fixed broadband and mobile segments in Nigeria, but Omdia expects WCDMA (3G) mobile usage to remain dominant over the next five years as devices become more affordable. In 2019, 3G made up 62% of mobile market share in Nigeria, while 35% of users were still on 2G and only 3% were using 4G LTE.

LTE is however the fastest-growing technology, having recorded 140% growth in 2019, while 5G is expected to be launched in 2021, but a definite spectrum auction is yet to happen.

The Nigerian telecoms and media connections market is still growing and is forecast to hit 229 million in 2024 from 191 million in 2019, a compound annual growth rate of 3.7%. Mobile will be by far the largest segment, making up 94% of the predicted 217 million overall connections in 2024.

"There is little convergence between the different telecoms and media segments in Nigeria. Market leaders MTN and Globacom provide fixed broadband services, but are yet to take over leadership from smaller ISPs such as Smile in the segment. MTN's fixed broadband services essentially target the enterprise segment, while Smile's offering addresses a wider audience," Mbongue explained.

In the fixed broadband segment, fixed wireless access dominates the market and contributed to 95% of the revenue in 2019, while fiber connections made up just 3% and satellite the final 2%.

Mobile broadband subscriptions also increased by 48% year on year to 84 million, with 82 million 3G users and 2 million 4G users. Omdia expects mobile broadband subscriptions to reach 180 million by 2023.

A report of this kind cannot be published without some comment on the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. Omdia's research found that during Nigeria's lockdown, mobile network operators (MNOs) observed a sharp increase in data traffic at the expense of voice traffic as customers increasingly connected to digital channels for their daily activities – including work, shopping, communication, entertainment and social media.

During the COVID-19 crisis, Nigeria's MNOs offered free access to some health-related and education platforms, free SMS allowance and waived some mobile money transfer fees.

— Paula Gilbert, Editor, Connecting Africa

Innovation hub

Story

Omdia View: February 2024

Highlights in February 2024 in the Middle East and Africa included 5G launches in Senegal and 5G trials in Egypt as well as Kenya's first 5G MVNO. Airtel also launched a new wholesale connectivity business while MTN and Huawei are planning a joint Innovation Technology Lab in South Africa – that and more in this month's Omdia View.

Story

Key adoption areas for machine learning in Africa

ICT analyst Francis Hook identifies some of the key sectors that could be positively impacted by machine learning, including education, government services, healthcare and climate tech.

More Innovation hub

Latest video

More videos

Upcoming events

Africa Tech Festival 2024
November 11-14, 2024
Cape Town, South Africa
More Upcoming events

Sponsored video

More videos

Industry announcements

More Industry announcements

Africa Tech Perspectives

Story

Uber's Marjorie Saint-Lot on inclusion and sustainability in Africa

Uber's Country Manager for Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, Marjorie Saint-Lot, shares how the ride-hailing company is approaching public-private partnerships, environmentally friendly initiatives and gender inclusion in Africa.

Story

The 100 most influential African leaders in 2023

A new report from Africa Tech Festival and Connecting Africa puts a spotlight on the top 100 African leaders in the telecoms and technology sector in 2023.

Story

Deep dive into East Africa's tech startup ecosystem

New survey reveals a lack of access to investors, reliance on international VCs and global recession trends as the biggest barriers for East African tech startups to access funds.

More Africa Tech perspectives

Partner perspectives

All Partner Perspectives

Guest Perspectives

Story

Omdia View: January 2024

By Omdia Analysts

Highlights in January 2024 in the Middle East and Africa included a $200 million fintech deal between MTN and Mastercard as well as 5G network trials by Telecom Egypt – that and more in this month's Omdia View.

Story

Omdia View: September 2023

By Omdia Analysts

Highlights in September 2023 in the Middle East and Africa included more 5G spectrum licenses, vendor and operator strategies, and partnerships – that and more in this month's Omdia View.

More Guest Perspectives

Like us on Facebook

Newsletter Sign Up


Sign Up
Tag id test-002